China
How will the polls impact China?Guterma: While prior U.S. elections could be forecast to impact China by plus or minus a few points of long-term relative gain in global power, this year, the elections, if they suffer a crisis of legitimacy, could allow China to close the relative power gap more than they could've dreamed of even a few years ago, and not just on economic terms but on cultural and ideological terms, too.On top of that, America's perennially dysfunctional Congress and increasingly violently polarized populace cumulatively serve the purpose of proving correct the Chinese Community Party (CCP) view that their system is superior for long-term stability, growth, and improvement of individual livelihoods. Who wants to be like America now? Fortunately for the CCP, probably less people than ever before.
It's important to remember that while Western nations think that the ideological struggle between capitalism and communism ended conclusively in 1989, in China the ideological competition never ended, and they are putting more points on the board than ever before.That's all from the Party viewpoint. On a social basis, America has enjoyed soft power status in China on par with America's soft power status in most other countries around the world.If you consider America and China as competing 'companies' seeking to export their systems to buyers in other markets, China's sales pitch is getting easier by the day.
The odd thing this year is that it's by no means clear which candidate would end up ultimately being better for China: the incumbent, who if re-elected will continue to do reputation damage to the U.S. internationally, undermining American moral authority and miring the U.S. in internecine partisan strife that will effectively paralyze it until he's no longer in office'; or the Democratic challenger, who will probably restore a semblance of normalcy, diplomacy, and predictability to the relationship. China stands to gain and lose from both outcomes.
Hong Kong
Hong Kong will be far better off if a Biden administration can lower the temperature with Beijing and use the right diplomatic combination of carrots and sticks to get Beijing at the very least to be highly selective in its enforcement of the National Security Law.
India
Australia
Our current government in Canberra isn't treating climate change as seriously as the rising generations in Australia and the world would want them to. But Biden would clearly bring the U.S. back into sync with the Paris Accords and the more progressive side of Australian politics. No questions about that.
Japan
Another four years of Trump will have devastating consequences.
Singapore
Malaysia
Which president will be more beneficial to Southeast Asia? BW: Biden. Southeast Asia needs to be seen in its own rights (not through the lens of China), international norms of governance need to be strengthened, the pandemic needs better U.S. leadership and there needs to be greater focus on an economic recovery. These cannot happen under Trump. Democracy needs to restore itself through the ballot box and the acceptance of these results.For Malaysia, already in the China orbit, (a Trump win means) China's presence will deepen further. This will seriously undercut all U.S. businesses in the region, from digital technology to the service sector.
Philippines
Thailand
For Thailand, it will matter if Trump or Biden comes out on top because there will be qualitative differences in policy posture and approach.
A Trump second term would see more of the same. U.S.-Thai relations would be driven by interests over values. Trump hosted Thai coup leader [Prayut Chan-O-Cha] at the White House in October 2017, and has since appointed a U.S. envoy in Bangkok who is focused on commercial interests much more than rights, freedoms, and democratization away from authoritarianism.
A Biden White House will be tested by China. If Biden is weak on China like Obama, then we will see China's growing hegemony in Asia. But a Biden victory would be more favorable towards pro-democracy forces in Thailand.
Indonesia
South Korea
North Korea prefers Trump’s approach for sure. The letters sent by Kim released in the famed journalist Bob Woodward’s book “Rage”, shows that the Supreme Leader wants to achieve what he wants via the relationship with Trump. In a Trump presidency, there’s a low possibility that the North would cross the red line, the testing of a nuclear weapon and a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), since Trump has made it clear to draw the red line. While in a Biden presidency, there’s a high possibility that the North will provoke the U.S. with the testing of ICBM around the inauguration to increase leverage with the new leader.Overall, which president will be more beneficial to South Korea?Shin: Biden. First of all, from the perspective of officials, the traditional candidate is at least predictable while Trump is not. Predictability does matter in international diplomacy. It is expected to be better for officials to decide on a policy [if Biden wins], while it hasn’t been not easy due to the uncertainties so far. When it comes to the Korea-Japan relations, Biden cares more about their alliances than Trump, so Biden is more likely to mediate the relations as Obama tried to do that. I expect that the relationswill be more likely to be improved [if Biden wins]. Finally, I think Trump’s policy in North Korea failed and just increased uncertainties since there has been no improvements after the two summits.According to an October survey by the National Barometer Survey, South Koreans also prefer Biden. Forty-four percent of the respondents said that Biden will be more beneficial to South Korea, while only 14 percent thought Trump will be. What does this mean? It proves that South Koreans don’t set a high value on Trump’s policy in North Korea.With reports from Gavin Butler, Heather Chen, Anthony Esguerra, Junhyup Kwon, Rosa Folia, and Varsha Rani.The most crucial issue is a policy in North Korea. This is because the two candidates have considerably different approaches to North Korea as you see from the presidential debates. Trump has adopted the top-down approach with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, while Biden takes a more traditional approach that emphasizes a North Korea’s commitment.